Source: BCA Research as of 6/16/2020

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• Several months back (3/31/20) we put out a Chart of Interest highlighting China's growth trajectory as they are at the forefront of the COVID-19 pandemic where economic activity is about 2 months ahead of the rest of the world. Our base case at the time was for an estimated "V" shaped economic event with an intense recession.
• The chart above on China's Infrastructure spending is a strong indication of actual economic activity that points to a "V" shaped recovery unfolding as a result of historic global stimulus. Policy support helped activity in China bottom in February and looks to have helped activity in most of the rest of the world bottom in April.
• Policy support has been larger and more quickly deployed than expected. As lockdown restrictions continue to ease, we are encouraged by recent global economic data releases. If a recovery is indeed underway, as equity markets suggest, we could be at the beginning of a new bull market that lasts years.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2020

Source: Bloomberg, FTSE Russell, S&P, Strategas and Todd Asset Management as of 5/28/2020.
The top panel shows the relative price performance of the Russell 1000 Value divided by the Russell 1000 Growth. The series is indexed to 1 on 12/31/1992. The bottom panel takes the 5 largest names in the S&P 500 each month and sums the weights. Current top 5: Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet.

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• Much has been written about the outperformance of Growth over Value and the dominance of a handful of mega-cap Tech names (FANGMAs). Given that we are observing historically extreme readings on both of these dynamics (see above), we wonder whether a rotation could be in store.
• The last time we saw these levels of concentration in the S&P 500 was back in the Tech Bubble. This just so happened to coincide with a recession, bear market and rotation from the Growth market that dominated the 1990's to Value. Recessionary bear markets have typically resolved with leadership changes (i.e. Growth vs. Value, US vs. International, Defensive vs. Cyclical, etc.).
• The global economy is opening back up as lockdowns are lifted which is helping investors gain comfort that the worst of the recession may be behind us. If we continue to see this recovery unfold, improved visibility could drive a rotation into Cyclicals and Value. This could also lead to International outperformance over US, which has historically coincided with Value/Growth cycles.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2020

*Broad market defined as equal-weighted performance of Contravisory universe of stocks
Source: Contravisory Investment Management

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• For the month of March, 2020, the number of new 52 week lows reached an extreme we have not experienced before. Those monthly averages since the 1970s are represented by the chart in red above. Over 25% of stocks made new 52 week lows during the month.
• Going back over the past 46 years, when the percentage of stocks making 52-week lows on the NYSE reaches an extreme, the subsequent 12-month performance of the stock market is impressive. Right now, this chart is reaching all-time highs.
• If history is a guide, market performance over the next year should be better than current sentiment would indicate. Over the study period, there are 10 instances where new lows exceeded 10% of NYSE issues, with the average 1 year gain of an equal weighted NYSE universe (highlighted in the box above) following the peak of over 22%.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2020

Source: Evercore ISI

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• The Global COVID-19 Pandemic is an unprecedented event in our lifetime. A significant recession is underway with the first 2 quarters of 2020 expected to experience some of the worst real GDP numbers since the Great Depression.
• China's population and economy are at the forefront of the COVID-19 Pandemic with its trajectory providing a glimpse in to what we can expect from the Euro and US economies.
• The chart above, from Evercore ISI, presents TAM's current base case for not only China but also Global GDP. After the economy collapsed in January/February (China is about 2 months ahead of US), we are viewing a modest improvement in March.
• COVID-19 Pandemic economic effects have been offset by a record setting amount of global monetary and fiscal stimulus. Policymakers around the world have shown a willingness to do "whatever it takes".
• As the chart reflects, our base case is currently estimating a 'V' shaped economic event with an intense deep recession in the first half of 2020, followed by a sharp global recovery beginning in the third quarter.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2020

Source: Bloomberg, S&P and Todd Asset Management as of 1/31/2020
Top 10 list was screened monthly to capture the 10 largest names in the S&P 500 based on their market cap. The "Forgotten 490" consists of the remaining names in the S&P 500 that were not in the top 10. Current Top 10 include: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (A and C class shares), Facebook, Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson and Visa.

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• The largest ten stocks almost doubled the market performance over the past five years. Their average gain over the past five years is 140%, compared to the S&P return of about 75%. This is the largest spread we've seen since the Tech Bubble.
• This group mostly consists of the largest Growth names, which compared to Value is at an extreme on relative performance. We suspect ETFs and Algorithms have contributed to a very crowded trade.
• The broader market (i.e. the "Forgotten 490") is not nearly as strong as the headline index would suggest.

The indexes used in the chart are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment; it include reinvestment of dividends; it does not reflect management fees or transaction costs: S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized index of market activity based on the aggregate performance of a selected portfolio of publicly traded common stocks.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2020

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, S&P and Todd Asset Management as of 11/30/2019
Series is indexed to 1 on 12/31/1971. The S&P 500 Index is used to represent US equities. In order to show a longer period of time the MSCI ACWI ex-US index was blended with the MSCI EAFE to represent International equities. The ACWI ex-US inception is 12/31/2987, so prior to this point the EAFE was used. Since the MSCI ACWI ex-US contains both Developed and Emerging Market countries, we chose to use this index once data became available.

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• If reversion to the mean is the strongest force in the universe, relative performance between US and International stocks indicate that a tipping point could be near.
• International markets are more cyclically oriented and would be larger beneficiaries of reaccelerating global growth, whereas US markets have been driven by larger Technology exposure (FAANG) over the past 10 years.
• Potential catalysts for a reversal would include: reaccelerating global growth, valuation dispersion and a weaker US dollar.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2019

Source: Robert Shiller, Sidney Homer, Bloomberg and Todd Asset Management as of 7/31/2019

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• When compared with prior periods of low rates, 30 years in the 19th century and 35 years in the last century, the current experience seems short.
• Rates stayed below 4% for 30 years between 1880-1910 and again 35 years between 1925-1960.
• Rates fell below 4% in 2007 and could say at these low levels for another 20-25 years through 2035-2040.
• In today's low interest rate environment, investors may look to equities for increased income. This is why we launched the Global Intrinsic Equity Income (GIVEI) strategy in 2011.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2019

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Global Financial Data, John Mauldin as of June 6, 2019

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• Merrill Lynch recently wrote a piece in June highlighting the incredible run over the past 10 years that the S & P 500 (+215%) has had versus the Euro Stoxx 50 (+41%).
• Since 1950 the difference in performance between the US and Europe had typically remained within 1 standard deviation. Around 2015 this disparity blew out to a 4 standard deviation event, reaching the most extreme level seen in at least 70 years.
• This relative underperformance has led many investors to question their allocations to European equities, while others are seeing an opportunity at these valuation levels despite compressed earnings.
• With this chart being at such an extreme that we have not witnessed before, within our International Intrinsic Value strategy our process has led us to become overweight Europe with the expectation of a likely reversion to the mean.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2019

The indexes used in the chart are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment; they include reinvestment of dividends; they do not reflect management fees or transaction costs: S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized index of market activity based on the aggregate performance of a selected portfolio of publicly traded common stocks. Euro Stoxx 50 Index, Europe's leading blue-chip index for the Eurozone, provides a blue-chip representation of supersector leaders in the region. The index covers 50 stocks from 11 Eurozone countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

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• Recent market volatility has felt like an "echo" of 2015-16 with many of the same concerns causing heightened fears of deep recession.
• Slowing global growth, monetary tightening, commodity weakness and uncertainty over Brexit led to a fear trade that saw Defensive leadership in both episodes. This leadership change occurred despite the fact that defensive sectors were expensive, both relative to history and vs. Cyclical sectors.
• Like 2016, we think coming resolutions to many of these concerns should set up 2019 to be better than investors initially feared as trade deals likely get struck, monetary policy becomes unrestrictive, fiscal policy initiatives kick in, a Brexit outcome unfolds and US Dollar tailwinds abate.
• Our fundamentally oriented discipline continues to highlight more Cyclical and economically sensitive parts of the market, which are more attractively valued with better earnings growth profiles than their Defensive counterparts. These areas led after the 2016 trough as fears subsided and growth recovered. We think we are set up for a similar "echo" recovery over the coming quarters.

The index used in the chart is unmanaged, and not available for direct investment; they include reinvestment of dividends; they do not reflect management fees or transaction costs: MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the combined equity market performance of developed and emerging market countries excluding the United States. The ACWI ex-U.S. includes both developed and emerging markets. For investors who benchmark their U.S. and international stocks separately, this index provides a way to monitor international exposure apart from U.S. investments.

The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an "as is" basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the "MSCI Parties") expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com).

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2019

Source: ISI

Cyclical spending includes: Investment in equipment and intellectual property products, residential housing, commercial real estate, consumer durables, and business inventories.

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• Late cycle fears have created a great deal of uncertainty and volatility over the past 3 years. In this context, investors have been quick to price in a recession believing any of a number of risks (Fed tightening, Trade wars, Brexit, etc.) would cause an end to a business cycle that is now over 10 years old.
• We believe we are much earlier in the cycle than consensus believes and have noted a number of factors that support this outlook. The chart above shows cyclical spending is nowhere near levels that preceded every recession over the past 50 years. It is difficult to get a large downturn in inventory or spending without excess. Historically, this excess has led to a recession only when cyclical spending has reached over 28% of GDP. Currently this measure is at 25%, indicating we are not late in the cycle.
• Our discipline continues to highlight Cyclicals, which are more attractively valued with better earnings growth profiles than their Defensive counterparts. Continued business and consumer spending, which has been suppressed since the Great Recession in 2008, should support more cyclically oriented companies and further extend this business cycle.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2019

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, S&P and Todd Asset Management. Data as of 1/31/2019.

Credit Impulse measures the 12mo percent change in social financing as a percent of nominal GDP. This series is then led by 9 months.

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• Credit impulse measures new credit issued as a percentage of GDP, a variation of liquidity in the Chinese economy.
• After several years of contracting credit growth led by a deleveraging campaign in China, we are seeing a shift emerge as stimulative measures are implemented.
• Importantly, trends in China's credit impulse tend to lead Emerging Market earnings growth. If history is a guide, this suggests that we should see activity recover in the second half of 2019.
• While we continue to think that a US/China trade agreement in the coming months will support international stocks and earnings in general (and Emerging Markets in particular), a return to expansionary credit impulse further strengthens our conviction in a continued recovery as the year progresses.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2019

MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. With 1,125 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. EM countries include: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. S&P® 500 Index is a widely recognized index of market activity based on the aggregate performance of a selected portfolio of publicly traded common US stocks.

The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an "as is" basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the "MSCI Parties") expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com).

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2019

Source: Brookings and Aegon Asset Management (Sarvjeev Sidhu)

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• The sun isn't the only thing rising in the East. The rising middle class is a long term theme we've reiterated many times. Growth in the middle class is heavily skewed toward emerging market countries as 87% of the next 1 billion people to enter the middle class will be from the Asia Pacific region.
• This is a powerful force with implications on a number of different industries from consumer goods to foods to travel to transportation.
• We continue to look for opportunities and companies that are able to tap into this long term theme of rising middle class populations and incomes.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2018

Source: Brookings

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• The sun isn't the only thing rising in the East. In 2030, global middle class spending is estimated to be $64 trillion per year. That's $29 trillion more than present, an amount equivalent to the current size of the US and Chinese economies combined.
• Of this $29 trillion in additional spending, $28 trillion will come from emerging markets.
• We continue to look for opportunities and companies that benefit from this tremendous long term tailwind in the growth of the emerging market middle class consumption. Approximately 25% of our current International portfolio is exposed to this strong trend.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2018

Source: Brookings

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• Over the past year or so we've witnessed a disconnect between global Energy stocks and the price of oil. Brent crude has continued to recover from the lows of early-2016 while Energy stocks have continued to underperform the broader index (MSCI ACWI).
• Whether this is due to investors expecting to see oil prices back in the low $30's or a lack of conviction in the sustainability of global growth, the correlation between oil prices and relative Energy stock performance went from near perfect before oil prices bottomed (+0.98) to negative since the bottom (-0.29). This is a dramatic change that history would suggest shouldn't persist.
• We believe Energy stocks should recover and are overweight this sector. Technological advancements have lowered their operating cost profile, boosting their cash generation potential. Sustainable global growth should also help support demand. Given that Energy stocks relative underperformance is historically stretched, we think it is more likely that this sector outperforms going forward.

The indexes used in the chart are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment; they include reinvestment of dividends; they do not reflect management fees or transaction costs: MSCI ACWI Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the combined equity market performance of developed and emerging market countries. MSCI ACWI Energy Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the combined equity market performance of developed and emerging market countries. All securities in the index are classified in the Energy sector as per the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2018

Source: ISI

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• The average age of US manufacturing plants peaked recently at levels we haven't seen since WWII. It has started to decline. We have noticed a similar trend in the age of equipment.
• When this trend changed previously, as in 1945 and 1965, capital spending on new equipment and manufacturing upgrades remained elevated for over a decade.
• Lowered corporate tax rates paired with immediate expensing of capital expenditures provide incentives to continue increasing spending on new plants and equipment. This could lengthen the current economic cycle. We believe our portfolio is positioned to benefit from this.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2018

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI and Todd Asset Management

Data as of 8/31/2018

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Relative performance calculated monthly by dividing the cumulative total return of the MSCI Emerging Market index by the MSCI World Index. Price levels were indexed to 100 on 12/31/1987, which is the first available data for the MSCI Emerging Market Index. The indexes are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment; they include reinvestment of dividends; they do not reflect management fees or transaction costs.

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• Emerging market stress has dominated the headlines over the past few months as ongoing trade disputes and monetary tightening in the US have caused the US dollar to strengthen (and emerging market currencies to weaken).
• The current environment reminds us of the 1998-2000 period where emerging market currencies weakened, valuations were cheap and the stage was set for a prolonged recovery.
• What could start a recovery from here? Perhaps the Fed slows their tightening. Maybe trade deals are struck and reduce uncertainty. Fundamentals could remain intact as China aggressively stimulates their economy. We think some combination of the three could put downward pressure on the US Dollar and put a bottom in place for emerging markets.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. EM countries include: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. The MSCI World Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. DM countries include: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK and the US.

The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an "as is" basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the "MSCI Parties") expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com).

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2018

Source: Strategas as of 9/25/2018

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• Ongoing trade war and tariff concerns have driven a tremendous amount of negative sentiment. However, what many have failed to consider is the positive and offsetting stimulus that has occurred in the US over the past 12 months.
• US Stimulus is nearly 5-10x larger than current tariffs that have been implemented globally. Bad news sells, and the danger of taking the cost of tariffs in isolation is missing the magnitude of positive growth stimulus.
• The nearly $1 Trillion in stimulus should work its way into shareholder returns, capital spending, wage growth and infrastructure projects. We believe our portfolio is positioned to capitalize on these trends.
• Our base case is that the ongoing trade dispute is more noise and negotiations rather than long-term fundamental disruption and shouldn't derail the solid global growth expansion.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2018

Source: ISI and KKR

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• A recent article from the Financial Times titled "Millennial Moment" fittingly describes the momentous demographic trend that will unfold over the next few decades. Many are aware of the large demographic shift underway in the US as Millennials overtake Baby Boomers in size. While this is important, a much more impactful trend is underway in Asia.
• Asian Millennials have reached over 800 million and outnumber those in the US by 12.5x.
• Millennials are only now starting to move into their peak earnings/spending years and are expected to remain the largest spending cohort for the next 20 years.
• This is a game-changing trend that should last for decades, redefining spending and consumption across the globe. We are constantly searching for opportunities to tap into this long-term growth vein.

This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2018