Insights and Intelligence

We believe Price/Intrinsic Value is the optimal approach to navigate the ebbs and flows of our ever changing, fast-paced and complex markets. 75% of our research is produced internally by a group of professionals skilled and experienced at integrating a world of advanced data into our proprietary process.

We make it a priority to keep all clients fully informed: why and how we make decisions, what's in our portfolios, how it strengthens our position and how it supports fulfilling their objectives.

Chart of Interest

Commentary
and News

2nd Quarter 2022

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

The Fed is proving the adage "An Ounce of Prevention is worth a Pound of Cure." Their mistake (i.e.- policy error) in this case was being too complacent in their inflationary outlook despite incredible fiscal expansion over the past couple of years and allowing it to get out of hand.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

International Markets weakened in the quarter, though they outperformed the US S&P 500. War-related inflation, Central Banks being behind the curve, and zero-Covid policies impacted various regional outlooks. Our sense is there may be "off-ramps" developing for these problems that could play out over the second half.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2022

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

To listen to strategists, nothing looks good. You name it, they're worried about it. War, higher rates, recession, inflation, yield curve inversions, supply chain problems, covid lockdowns… it seems consensus to say that nothing will go right ever again. That was the prevailing thought during a tough quarter for most asset classes in Q1.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

Market tumbled in the first quarter as Russia invaded the Ukraine, and the world realized that you cannot take peace in Europe for granted. With the invasion, the existing global supply chain problems for manufactured goods were compounded by war related commodity supply chains disruptions.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

4th Quarter 2021

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

In April of last year, our quarterly US review was titled "Aiming for an Overshoot". We noted that the Fed was going to keep rates low until the jobs market recovered and inflation was a problem. They thought it would take years. Well, they overshot it and we’re entering 2022 with full employment and an inflation problem.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

International stocks lagged the US again last year, as supply chain disruptions and resurgent Covid led investors to worry about economic growth after the first quarter. In 2021, theACWI ex-US returned 7.8% compared to a 28.7% return for the S&P. Much of the difference between these indexes resulted from the strength of US Growth stocks.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

3rd Quarter 2021

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

The S&P sagged on a growth scare in September, but still posted a positive result for the quarter. Concerns that weighed on markets included Washington turmoil, a hint of Fed tapering, Covid and general markdowns of expected economic growth on supply chain disruptions into year end. Interest rates rose and yield curves steepened late in the quarter as the thought of a reduction in Fed Buying coupled with an inflation pick up caused bond investors to balk.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

World markets sagged on several scares in September including Washington turmoil, Central Banks tapering, power shortages, potential financial crisis in China, Inflation worries, continued Covid concerns and general markdowns of expected economic growth on supply chain disruptions into year end. International markets underperformed the US for the quarter but outperformed during the September decline.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2021

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

At the end of June, the S&P 500 wrapped up a good month and quarter, with returns of 2.33% and 8.55% respectively. During the quarter, the S&P hit many new highs and was the leader of all major markets, as most international indexes posted lower returns. Growth trounced Value, as many of the big tech beneficiaries of Covid-19 caught a strong bid while interest rates fell from almost 1.75% to 1.25% recently.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

On June 1, the ACWI ex-US traded to a new high (the first since 2007) and stayed at new highs until June 15, before backing off a bit. This happened after nearly 14 years in a trading range. Google it... there are no news stories and the media ignored it. A sustainable breakout would suggest a shift to a secular bull market.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2021

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

Markets acted well during the first quarter on the realization that both the Federal Reserve and the Federal Government are experimenting with the idea of having the economy overshoot the mark during the recovery. The rotation to Value continued as the economic outlook became clearer.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

The global resurgence of COVID-19 cases during the first quarter has delayed the global economic boom we expect after the reopening fully occurs. Delayed... not cancelled. Globally synchronized growth is still the most likely outcome as vaccinations occur and economies re-open.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

4th Quarter 2020

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

The concerns we noted in our last quarterly letter seem to have evaporated (like we thought they would) to give way to an optimism for reflation, economic recovery and allow for a rotation into new leadership for the market. Worries about elections, stimulus, pandemics and Brexit were on the top of investors' minds, despite a robust rally in stocks and recovery in the economy.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

International markets performed well through the fourth quarter of last year, and the MSCI ACWI ex-US Index, led by the Emerging Markets, outperformed the S&P for both the quarter and the trailing six month period. We believe this recent outperformance is probably the beginning of a new cycle where International Markets should outperform the US Market as a synchronized global recovery starts and cyclical forces shift to favor them.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

3rd Quarter 2020

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

If you were to ask ten investors what they worry most about, you might get twelve answers in the current environment. The one we see playing out the most in the market is the tug of war between the recovery believers and those worried about an economic or health related relapse. We believe a recovery is the more likely outcome, but you cannot totally rule out the potential for modest relapses along the way.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

The Chinese economy has bounced back after the Pandemic. Other global economies are expecting a bounce back as well, but likely lagged from China's by 3 months. Looking at just the numbers, the Chinese economy grew 3% year over year in the second quarter. While this is less than half of the growth rate we saw prior to the Pandemic, it highlights how economies can recover from the depths of a recession when the stars align and conditions for a recovery are present.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2020

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

Economic results are improving from record setting weakness but it will take some time before we reach pre-virus activity levels. We are seeing a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, expecting a contentious election and stocks have seen a significant run off the bottom... We believe an economic recovery is unfolding, but the market might trade sideways for the summer while awaiting further evidence that the recovery is taking hold.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

Economic activity is recovering in the reverse order of the pandemic hitting, and there are many stimulative programs being pursued to ensure the recovery takes hold. While the tone of the economy in the US is better, but still not good, global activity measures appear to be firming ahead of the US, and are being led by a Chinese recovery.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2020

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

What started out as a decent quarter with the economy growing, people getting jobs and investors making money, turned into the fastest decline on record of almost 34% over 22 trading days between February 19 and March 23. Everyone became familiar with a new term- a Lockdown. As we are seeing the effects of the Coronavirus lockdown related screeching halt of economic activity, we start thinking about the concept of lockdown-omics, i.e. estimating how bad the contraction in activity is going to be.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

The optimism that investors had entering the new quarter was justified, right up until it wasn’t... While that optimism may have been justified at that time, the global coronavirus pandemic erased it and sent markets into a tailspin resulting in roughly 34% declines for both MSCI ACWI ex-US and the S&P 500 indexes from their recent peaks.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

The Coronavirus Bear Market… Is it Done Yet?

Market Commentary

Download PDF

Panic has set into markets as we entered Bear Market territory with concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and an oil price war weighing on investors... While uncertainty lingers, investors are likely to remain on edge. If there is good news to be had, it would be that the impact of the virus should be temporary (experts suggest a couple of months). Also, lower oil prices should help consumer incomes as they filter through the system. Now the question becomes getting through the next couple of months and minimizing the human and financial impact of dealing with these issues.

Coronavirus Correction, What is Discounted Now?

Market Commentary

Download PDF

While we could sit here and spout opinions for a long time, the real question most stockholder have is "what do I do now?" We see extreme sentiment measures as evidenced by high volatility readings (the VIX) and high put to call readings. Typically, those readings coincide with peak fear, and markets have tended to stabilize after them. Most economists have already anticipated economic weakness and marked their forecasts down accordingly, but we have not seen the indicators yet and that is all still to play out ahead of us.

4th Quarter 2019

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

The markets drove bears up the wall (of worry) as it climbed last year. We believe the pundits are still looking in disbelief at the market returns, and stand by our call that most worries are likely to be addressed and worldwide economic growth is likely to accelerate this year. Markets may be a little ahead of themselves early in 2020, so we expect a period of consolidation followed by a resumption in the equity market advance.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

At the end of September 2019, it appeared investors were very concerned that nothing could go right for the world economy. Stocks were doing OK, but investors worried that Brexit would lead to further weakness in the economic outlook and chaos in the markets. They were also concerned that the Trade War would escalate, and continue to dampen the outlook for economic growth in Europe and (especially) the Emerging Markets.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

3rd Quarter 2019

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

Markets have been held hostage to developments on trade and tariffs that have leaned on confidence since December of last year, and have shown dramatic movements based on the expectations of a Deal or no Deal in the trade war. We have believed for some time that the trade war would start to see some resolution as the President combines his "Art of the Deal" strategy with Re-Election hopes.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

US Investors have shunned international markets this year. To be fair, the ACWI ex-US index is up more than 11.6% year to date, but that still pales when compared to the S&P returning over 20%. International indexes have underperformed the US since Q1 2018 as the uncertainties relating to trade wars, manufacturing slowdowns and Brexit weighed on confidence.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2019

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

The US market has acted very well this year, despite economic worries spurred by the new tariff concerns and a global manufacturing slowdown. Markets weakened in May after the breakdown of trade negotiations, only to recover in June as anticipation of a resumption of talks was priced in.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

Years ago, I lived in a part of the country that was a hotbed of fans for NASCAR, the stock car racing association. After one brutal afternoon when a lot of drivers “traded paint” (slang for sideswiping each other), more than one car wound up spinning into the infield after getting hit. After the race, a sportscaster asked the winner about the contact on the track. His answer... “Well, that’s racin!”

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2019

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

First quarter market performance shows the power that a simple phrase like "Never Mind" can have, especially when it is the Fed Chairman invoking that sentiment. The S&P rose almost 14% in the first quarter posting a rebound of Biblical proportions from a fourth quarter that ended in tears.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

Two deals, a China/US Trade deal and a Brexit Deal, captured investor attention during the first quarter. Bond Vigilantes worry about the possibility of deals not being reached and growth deteriorating. The "Bond Vigilantes" have been hard at work driving rates down (and stopping Central Bank tightening) in anticipation of a deflationary bust.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

4th Quarter 2018

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

The US stock market anticipated a recession in the second half of last year. The 20% decline from the S&P 500 peak in September to the trough in December is confirmation of that. The US bond market probably geared up for one as well, as the decline in bond yields seems to indicate. The odd thing about this is that the Federal Reserve and most economists do not expect one.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

International markets suffered significant declines in 2018 as investors suffered from the worst kind of anticipation, namely worrying about a potential recession. Most Central Banks and Economists are not predicting a recession, but investors have long memories and appear to be inclined to anticipate the worst after the Great Recession experience. As we look at it, this episode feels like an Echo of 2016, another period that was trying for markets.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

Whitepapers

The Case for the S&P Doubling and a Global Bull Market

The Case for S&P 2500

Chart of Interest

Commentary
and News

2nd Quarter 2022

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The Fed is proving the adage "An Ounce of Prevention is worth a Pound of Cure." Their mistake (i.e.- policy error) in this case was being too complacent in their inflationary outlook despite incredible fiscal expansion over the past couple of years and allowing it to get out of hand.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

International Markets weakened in the quarter, though they outperformed the US S&P 500. War-related inflation, Central Banks being behind the curve, and zero-Covid policies impacted various regional outlooks. Our sense is there may be "off-ramps" developing for these problems that could play out over the second half.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2022

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

To listen to strategists, nothing looks good. You name it, they're worried about it. War, higher rates, recession, inflation, yield curve inversions, supply chain problems, covid lockdowns… it seems consensus to say that nothing will go right ever again. That was the prevailing thought during a tough quarter for most asset classes in Q1.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Market tumbled in the first quarter as Russia invaded the Ukraine, and the world realized that you cannot take peace in Europe for granted. With the invasion, the existing global supply chain problems for manufactured goods were compounded by war related commodity supply chains disruptions.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

4th Quarter 2021

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

In April of last year, our quarterly US review was titled "Aiming for an Overshoot". We noted that the Fed was going to keep rates low until the jobs market recovered and inflation was a problem. They thought it would take years. Well, they overshot it and we’re entering 2022 with full employment and an inflation problem.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

International stocks lagged the US again last year, as supply chain disruptions and resurgent Covid led investors to worry about economic growth after the first quarter. In 2021, theACWI ex-US returned 7.8% compared to a 28.7% return for the S&P. Much of the difference between these indexes resulted from the strength of US Growth stocks.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

3rd Quarter 2021

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The S&P sagged on a growth scare in September, but still posted a positive result for the quarter. Concerns that weighed on markets included Washington turmoil, a hint of Fed tapering, Covid and general markdowns of expected economic growth on supply chain disruptions into year end. Interest rates rose and yield curves steepened late in the quarter as the thought of a reduction in Fed Buying coupled with an inflation pick up caused bond investors to balk.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

World markets sagged on several scares in September including Washington turmoil, Central Banks tapering, power shortages, potential financial crisis in China, Inflation worries, continued Covid concerns and general markdowns of expected economic growth on supply chain disruptions into year end. International markets underperformed the US for the quarter but outperformed during the September decline.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2021

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

At the end of June, the S&P 500 wrapped up a good month and quarter, with returns of 2.33% and 8.55% respectively. During the quarter, the S&P hit many new highs and was the leader of all major markets, as most international indexes posted lower returns. Growth trounced Value, as many of the big tech beneficiaries of Covid-19 caught a strong bid while interest rates fell from almost 1.75% to 1.25% recently.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

On June 1, the ACWI ex-US traded to a new high (the first since 2007) and stayed at new highs until June 15, before backing off a bit. This happened after nearly 14 years in a trading range. Google it... there are no news stories and the media ignored it. A sustainable breakout would suggest a shift to a secular bull market.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2021

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Markets acted well during the first quarter on the realization that both the Federal Reserve and the Federal Government are experimenting with the idea of having the economy overshoot the mark during the recovery. The rotation to Value continued as the economic outlook became clearer.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The global resurgence of COVID-19 cases during the first quarter has delayed the global economic boom we expect after the reopening fully occurs. Delayed... not cancelled. Globally synchronized growth is still the most likely outcome as vaccinations occur and economies re-open.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

4th Quarter 2020

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The concerns we noted in our last quarterly letter seem to have evaporated (like we thought they would) to give way to an optimism for reflation, economic recovery and allow for a rotation into new leadership for the market. Worries about elections, stimulus, pandemics and Brexit were on the top of investors' minds, despite a robust rally in stocks and recovery in the economy.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

International markets performed well through the fourth quarter of last year, and the MSCI ACWI ex-US Index, led by the Emerging Markets, outperformed the S&P for both the quarter and the trailing six month period. We believe this recent outperformance is probably the beginning of a new cycle where International Markets should outperform the US Market as a synchronized global recovery starts and cyclical forces shift to favor them.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

3rd Quarter 2020

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

If you were to ask ten investors what they worry most about, you might get twelve answers in the current environment. The one we see playing out the most in the market is the tug of war between the recovery believers and those worried about an economic or health related relapse. We believe a recovery is the more likely outcome, but you cannot totally rule out the potential for modest relapses along the way.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The Chinese economy has bounced back after the Pandemic. Other global economies are expecting a bounce back as well, but likely lagged from China's by 3 months. Looking at just the numbers, the Chinese economy grew 3% year over year in the second quarter. While this is less than half of the growth rate we saw prior to the Pandemic, it highlights how economies can recover from the depths of a recession when the stars align and conditions for a recovery are present.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2020

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Economic results are improving from record setting weakness but it will take some time before we reach pre-virus activity levels. We are seeing a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, expecting a contentious election and stocks have seen a significant run off the bottom... We believe an economic recovery is unfolding, but the market might trade sideways for the summer while awaiting further evidence that the recovery is taking hold.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Economic activity is recovering in the reverse order of the pandemic hitting, and there are many stimulative programs being pursued to ensure the recovery takes hold. While the tone of the economy in the US is better, but still not good, global activity measures appear to be firming ahead of the US, and are being led by a Chinese recovery.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2020

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

What started out as a decent quarter with the economy growing, people getting jobs and investors making money, turned into the fastest decline on record of almost 34% over 22 trading days between February 19 and March 23. Everyone became familiar with a new term- a Lockdown. As we are seeing the effects of the Coronavirus lockdown related screeching halt of economic activity, we start thinking about the concept of lockdown-omics, i.e. estimating how bad the contraction in activity is going to be.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The optimism that investors had entering the new quarter was justified, right up until it wasn’t... While that optimism may have been justified at that time, the global coronavirus pandemic erased it and sent markets into a tailspin resulting in roughly 34% declines for both MSCI ACWI ex-US and the S&P 500 indexes from their recent peaks.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

The Coronavirus Bear Market… Is it Done Yet?

Market Commentary

Download PDF

Panic has set into markets as we entered Bear Market territory with concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and an oil price war weighing on investors... While uncertainty lingers, investors are likely to remain on edge. If there is good news to be had, it would be that the impact of the virus should be temporary (experts suggest a couple of months). Also, lower oil prices should help consumer incomes as they filter through the system. Now the question becomes getting through the next couple of months and minimizing the human and financial impact of dealing with these issues.

Coronavirus Correction, What is Discounted Now?

Market Commentary

Download PDF

While we could sit here and spout opinions for a long time, the real question most stockholder have is "what do I do now?" We see extreme sentiment measures as evidenced by high volatility readings (the VIX) and high put to call readings. Typically, those readings coincide with peak fear, and markets have tended to stabilize after them. Most economists have already anticipated economic weakness and marked their forecasts down accordingly, but we have not seen the indicators yet and that is all still to play out ahead of us.

4th Quarter 2019

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The markets drove bears up the wall (of worry) as it climbed last year. We believe the pundits are still looking in disbelief at the market returns, and stand by our call that most worries are likely to be addressed and worldwide economic growth is likely to accelerate this year. Markets may be a little ahead of themselves early in 2020, so we expect a period of consolidation followed by a resumption in the equity market advance.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

At the end of September 2019, it appeared investors were very concerned that nothing could go right for the world economy. Stocks were doing OK, but investors worried that Brexit would lead to further weakness in the economic outlook and chaos in the markets. They were also concerned that the Trade War would escalate, and continue to dampen the outlook for economic growth in Europe and (especially) the Emerging Markets.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

3rd Quarter 2019

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Markets have been held hostage to developments on trade and tariffs that have leaned on confidence since December of last year, and have shown dramatic movements based on the expectations of a Deal or no Deal in the trade war. We have believed for some time that the trade war would start to see some resolution as the President combines his "Art of the Deal" strategy with Re-Election hopes.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

US Investors have shunned international markets this year. To be fair, the ACWI ex-US index is up more than 11.6% year to date, but that still pales when compared to the S&P returning over 20%. International indexes have underperformed the US since Q1 2018 as the uncertainties relating to trade wars, manufacturing slowdowns and Brexit weighed on confidence.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2019

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The US market has acted very well this year, despite economic worries spurred by the new tariff concerns and a global manufacturing slowdown. Markets weakened in May after the breakdown of trade negotiations, only to recover in June as anticipation of a resumption of talks was priced in.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Years ago, I lived in a part of the country that was a hotbed of fans for NASCAR, the stock car racing association. After one brutal afternoon when a lot of drivers “traded paint” (slang for sideswiping each other), more than one car wound up spinning into the infield after getting hit. After the race, a sportscaster asked the winner about the contact on the track. His answer... “Well, that’s racin!”

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2019

U.S. Review

Download PDF

First quarter market performance shows the power that a simple phrase like "Never Mind" can have, especially when it is the Fed Chairman invoking that sentiment. The S&P rose almost 14% in the first quarter posting a rebound of Biblical proportions from a fourth quarter that ended in tears.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Review

Download PDF

Two deals, a China/US Trade deal and a Brexit Deal, captured investor attention during the first quarter. Bond Vigilantes worry about the possibility of deals not being reached and growth deteriorating. The "Bond Vigilantes" have been hard at work driving rates down (and stopping Central Bank tightening) in anticipation of a deflationary bust.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

4th Quarter 2018

U.S. Review

The US stock market anticipated a recession in the second half of last year. The 20% decline from the S&P 500 peak in September to the trough in December is confirmation of that. The US bond market probably geared up for one as well, as the decline in bond yields seems to indicate. The odd thing about this is that the Federal Reserve and most economists do not expect one.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Review

International markets suffered significant declines in 2018 as investors suffered from the worst kind of anticipation, namely worrying about a potential recession. Most Central Banks and Economists are not predicting a recession, but investors have long memories and appear to be inclined to anticipate the worst after the Great Recession experience. As we look at it, this episode feels like an Echo of 2016, another period that was trying for markets.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

Whitepapers

The Case for the S&P Doubling and a Global Bull Market

The Case for S&P 2500