Insights and Intelligence

We believe Price/Intrinsic Value is the optimal approach to navigate the ebbs and flows of our ever changing, fast-paced and complex markets. 75% of our research is produced internally by a group of professionals skilled and experienced at integrating a world of advanced data into our proprietary process.

We make it a priority to keep all clients fully informed: why and how we make decisions, what's in our portfolios, how it strengthens our position and how it supports fulfilling their objectives.

Chart of Interest

Commentary
and News

3rd Quarter 2022

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

Battling inflation, the Federal Reserve seems to have adopted Mark Zuckerberg's motto, "move fast and break things." Rates have increased faster than at any time since 1979-1981, when they ranged from 10% to 20% and back again twice in the space of a year. This Fed has learned from that experience and promises to continue raising rates through early next year and hold rates higher until they get inflation back to 2%.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

Have we hit "Peak Chaos" yet? A recent Bloomberg article highlighted that chaos was on the rise in Q3: the war in the Ukraine was increasing in intensity, OPEC+ reducing output with energy prices remaining high, Chinese lockdowns slowed activity, a hawkish Federal Reserve and Midterm Elections in the US pointing to some change in the balance of power.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2022

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

The Fed is proving the adage "An Ounce of Prevention is worth a Pound of Cure." Their mistake (i.e.- policy error) in this case was being too complacent in their inflationary outlook despite incredible fiscal expansion over the past couple of years and allowing it to get out of hand.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

International Markets weakened in the quarter, though they outperformed the US S&P 500. War-related inflation, Central Banks being behind the curve, and zero-Covid policies impacted various regional outlooks. Our sense is there may be "off-ramps" developing for these problems that could play out over the second half.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2022

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

To listen to strategists, nothing looks good. You name it, they're worried about it. War, higher rates, recession, inflation, yield curve inversions, supply chain problems, covid lockdowns… it seems consensus to say that nothing will go right ever again. That was the prevailing thought during a tough quarter for most asset classes in Q1.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

Market tumbled in the first quarter as Russia invaded the Ukraine, and the world realized that you cannot take peace in Europe for granted. With the invasion, the existing global supply chain problems for manufactured goods were compounded by war related commodity supply chains disruptions.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

4th Quarter 2021

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

In April of last year, our quarterly US review was titled "Aiming for an Overshoot". We noted that the Fed was going to keep rates low until the jobs market recovered and inflation was a problem. They thought it would take years. Well, they overshot it and we’re entering 2022 with full employment and an inflation problem.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

International stocks lagged the US again last year, as supply chain disruptions and resurgent Covid led investors to worry about economic growth after the first quarter. In 2021, theACWI ex-US returned 7.8% compared to a 28.7% return for the S&P. Much of the difference between these indexes resulted from the strength of US Growth stocks.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

3rd Quarter 2021

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

The S&P sagged on a growth scare in September, but still posted a positive result for the quarter. Concerns that weighed on markets included Washington turmoil, a hint of Fed tapering, Covid and general markdowns of expected economic growth on supply chain disruptions into year end. Interest rates rose and yield curves steepened late in the quarter as the thought of a reduction in Fed Buying coupled with an inflation pick up caused bond investors to balk.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

World markets sagged on several scares in September including Washington turmoil, Central Banks tapering, power shortages, potential financial crisis in China, Inflation worries, continued Covid concerns and general markdowns of expected economic growth on supply chain disruptions into year end. International markets underperformed the US for the quarter but outperformed during the September decline.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2021

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

At the end of June, the S&P 500 wrapped up a good month and quarter, with returns of 2.33% and 8.55% respectively. During the quarter, the S&P hit many new highs and was the leader of all major markets, as most international indexes posted lower returns. Growth trounced Value, as many of the big tech beneficiaries of Covid-19 caught a strong bid while interest rates fell from almost 1.75% to 1.25% recently.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

On June 1, the ACWI ex-US traded to a new high (the first since 2007) and stayed at new highs until June 15, before backing off a bit. This happened after nearly 14 years in a trading range. Google it... there are no news stories and the media ignored it. A sustainable breakout would suggest a shift to a secular bull market.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2021

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

Markets acted well during the first quarter on the realization that both the Federal Reserve and the Federal Government are experimenting with the idea of having the economy overshoot the mark during the recovery. The rotation to Value continued as the economic outlook became clearer.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

The global resurgence of COVID-19 cases during the first quarter has delayed the global economic boom we expect after the reopening fully occurs. Delayed... not cancelled. Globally synchronized growth is still the most likely outcome as vaccinations occur and economies re-open.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

4th Quarter 2020

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

The concerns we noted in our last quarterly letter seem to have evaporated (like we thought they would) to give way to an optimism for reflation, economic recovery and allow for a rotation into new leadership for the market. Worries about elections, stimulus, pandemics and Brexit were on the top of investors' minds, despite a robust rally in stocks and recovery in the economy.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

International markets performed well through the fourth quarter of last year, and the MSCI ACWI ex-US Index, led by the Emerging Markets, outperformed the S&P for both the quarter and the trailing six month period. We believe this recent outperformance is probably the beginning of a new cycle where International Markets should outperform the US Market as a synchronized global recovery starts and cyclical forces shift to favor them.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

3rd Quarter 2020

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

If you were to ask ten investors what they worry most about, you might get twelve answers in the current environment. The one we see playing out the most in the market is the tug of war between the recovery believers and those worried about an economic or health related relapse. We believe a recovery is the more likely outcome, but you cannot totally rule out the potential for modest relapses along the way.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

The Chinese economy has bounced back after the Pandemic. Other global economies are expecting a bounce back as well, but likely lagged from China's by 3 months. Looking at just the numbers, the Chinese economy grew 3% year over year in the second quarter. While this is less than half of the growth rate we saw prior to the Pandemic, it highlights how economies can recover from the depths of a recession when the stars align and conditions for a recovery are present.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2020

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

Economic results are improving from record setting weakness but it will take some time before we reach pre-virus activity levels. We are seeing a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, expecting a contentious election and stocks have seen a significant run off the bottom... We believe an economic recovery is unfolding, but the market might trade sideways for the summer while awaiting further evidence that the recovery is taking hold.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

Economic activity is recovering in the reverse order of the pandemic hitting, and there are many stimulative programs being pursued to ensure the recovery takes hold. While the tone of the economy in the US is better, but still not good, global activity measures appear to be firming ahead of the US, and are being led by a Chinese recovery.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2020

US Market Commentary

Download PDF

What started out as a decent quarter with the economy growing, people getting jobs and investors making money, turned into the fastest decline on record of almost 34% over 22 trading days between February 19 and March 23. Everyone became familiar with a new term- a Lockdown. As we are seeing the effects of the Coronavirus lockdown related screeching halt of economic activity, we start thinking about the concept of lockdown-omics, i.e. estimating how bad the contraction in activity is going to be.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market Commentary

Download PDF

The optimism that investors had entering the new quarter was justified, right up until it wasn’t... While that optimism may have been justified at that time, the global coronavirus pandemic erased it and sent markets into a tailspin resulting in roughly 34% declines for both MSCI ACWI ex-US and the S&P 500 indexes from their recent peaks.

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

The Coronavirus Bear Market… Is it Done Yet?

Market Commentary

Download PDF

Panic has set into markets as we entered Bear Market territory with concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and an oil price war weighing on investors... While uncertainty lingers, investors are likely to remain on edge. If there is good news to be had, it would be that the impact of the virus should be temporary (experts suggest a couple of months). Also, lower oil prices should help consumer incomes as they filter through the system. Now the question becomes getting through the next couple of months and minimizing the human and financial impact of dealing with these issues.

Coronavirus Correction, What is Discounted Now?

Market Commentary

Download PDF

While we could sit here and spout opinions for a long time, the real question most stockholder have is "what do I do now?" We see extreme sentiment measures as evidenced by high volatility readings (the VIX) and high put to call readings. Typically, those readings coincide with peak fear, and markets have tended to stabilize after them. Most economists have already anticipated economic weakness and marked their forecasts down accordingly, but we have not seen the indicators yet and that is all still to play out ahead of us.

Whitepapers

The Case for the S&P Doubling and a Global Bull Market

The Case for S&P 2500

Chart of Interest

Commentary
and News

3rd Quarter 2022

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Battling inflation, the Federal Reserve seems to have adopted Mark Zuckerberg's motto, "move fast and break things." Rates have increased faster than at any time since 1979-1981, when they ranged from 10% to 20% and back again twice in the space of a year. This Fed has learned from that experience and promises to continue raising rates through early next year and hold rates higher until they get inflation back to 2%.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Have we hit "Peak Chaos" yet? A recent Bloomberg article highlighted that chaos was on the rise in Q3: the war in the Ukraine was increasing in intensity, OPEC+ reducing output with energy prices remaining high, Chinese lockdowns slowed activity, a hawkish Federal Reserve and Midterm Elections in the US pointing to some change in the balance of power.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2022

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The Fed is proving the adage "An Ounce of Prevention is worth a Pound of Cure." Their mistake (i.e.- policy error) in this case was being too complacent in their inflationary outlook despite incredible fiscal expansion over the past couple of years and allowing it to get out of hand.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

International Markets weakened in the quarter, though they outperformed the US S&P 500. War-related inflation, Central Banks being behind the curve, and zero-Covid policies impacted various regional outlooks. Our sense is there may be "off-ramps" developing for these problems that could play out over the second half.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2022

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

To listen to strategists, nothing looks good. You name it, they're worried about it. War, higher rates, recession, inflation, yield curve inversions, supply chain problems, covid lockdowns… it seems consensus to say that nothing will go right ever again. That was the prevailing thought during a tough quarter for most asset classes in Q1.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Market tumbled in the first quarter as Russia invaded the Ukraine, and the world realized that you cannot take peace in Europe for granted. With the invasion, the existing global supply chain problems for manufactured goods were compounded by war related commodity supply chains disruptions.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

4th Quarter 2021

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

In April of last year, our quarterly US review was titled "Aiming for an Overshoot". We noted that the Fed was going to keep rates low until the jobs market recovered and inflation was a problem. They thought it would take years. Well, they overshot it and we’re entering 2022 with full employment and an inflation problem.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

International stocks lagged the US again last year, as supply chain disruptions and resurgent Covid led investors to worry about economic growth after the first quarter. In 2021, theACWI ex-US returned 7.8% compared to a 28.7% return for the S&P. Much of the difference between these indexes resulted from the strength of US Growth stocks.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

3rd Quarter 2021

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The S&P sagged on a growth scare in September, but still posted a positive result for the quarter. Concerns that weighed on markets included Washington turmoil, a hint of Fed tapering, Covid and general markdowns of expected economic growth on supply chain disruptions into year end. Interest rates rose and yield curves steepened late in the quarter as the thought of a reduction in Fed Buying coupled with an inflation pick up caused bond investors to balk.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

World markets sagged on several scares in September including Washington turmoil, Central Banks tapering, power shortages, potential financial crisis in China, Inflation worries, continued Covid concerns and general markdowns of expected economic growth on supply chain disruptions into year end. International markets underperformed the US for the quarter but outperformed during the September decline.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2021

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

At the end of June, the S&P 500 wrapped up a good month and quarter, with returns of 2.33% and 8.55% respectively. During the quarter, the S&P hit many new highs and was the leader of all major markets, as most international indexes posted lower returns. Growth trounced Value, as many of the big tech beneficiaries of Covid-19 caught a strong bid while interest rates fell from almost 1.75% to 1.25% recently.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

On June 1, the ACWI ex-US traded to a new high (the first since 2007) and stayed at new highs until June 15, before backing off a bit. This happened after nearly 14 years in a trading range. Google it... there are no news stories and the media ignored it. A sustainable breakout would suggest a shift to a secular bull market.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2021

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Markets acted well during the first quarter on the realization that both the Federal Reserve and the Federal Government are experimenting with the idea of having the economy overshoot the mark during the recovery. The rotation to Value continued as the economic outlook became clearer.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The global resurgence of COVID-19 cases during the first quarter has delayed the global economic boom we expect after the reopening fully occurs. Delayed... not cancelled. Globally synchronized growth is still the most likely outcome as vaccinations occur and economies re-open.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

4th Quarter 2020

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The concerns we noted in our last quarterly letter seem to have evaporated (like we thought they would) to give way to an optimism for reflation, economic recovery and allow for a rotation into new leadership for the market. Worries about elections, stimulus, pandemics and Brexit were on the top of investors' minds, despite a robust rally in stocks and recovery in the economy.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

International markets performed well through the fourth quarter of last year, and the MSCI ACWI ex-US Index, led by the Emerging Markets, outperformed the S&P for both the quarter and the trailing six month period. We believe this recent outperformance is probably the beginning of a new cycle where International Markets should outperform the US Market as a synchronized global recovery starts and cyclical forces shift to favor them.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

3rd Quarter 2020

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

If you were to ask ten investors what they worry most about, you might get twelve answers in the current environment. The one we see playing out the most in the market is the tug of war between the recovery believers and those worried about an economic or health related relapse. We believe a recovery is the more likely outcome, but you cannot totally rule out the potential for modest relapses along the way.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The Chinese economy has bounced back after the Pandemic. Other global economies are expecting a bounce back as well, but likely lagged from China's by 3 months. Looking at just the numbers, the Chinese economy grew 3% year over year in the second quarter. While this is less than half of the growth rate we saw prior to the Pandemic, it highlights how economies can recover from the depths of a recession when the stars align and conditions for a recovery are present.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

2nd Quarter 2020

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Economic results are improving from record setting weakness but it will take some time before we reach pre-virus activity levels. We are seeing a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, expecting a contentious election and stocks have seen a significant run off the bottom... We believe an economic recovery is unfolding, but the market might trade sideways for the summer while awaiting further evidence that the recovery is taking hold.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

Economic activity is recovering in the reverse order of the pandemic hitting, and there are many stimulative programs being pursued to ensure the recovery takes hold. While the tone of the economy in the US is better, but still not good, global activity measures appear to be firming ahead of the US, and are being led by a Chinese recovery.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

1st Quarter 2020

US Market
Commentary

Download PDF

What started out as a decent quarter with the economy growing, people getting jobs and investors making money, turned into the fastest decline on record of almost 34% over 22 trading days between February 19 and March 23. Everyone became familiar with a new term- a Lockdown. As we are seeing the effects of the Coronavirus lockdown related screeching halt of economic activity, we start thinking about the concept of lockdown-omics, i.e. estimating how bad the contraction in activity is going to be.

Large Cap Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Market
Commentary

Download PDF

The optimism that investors had entering the new quarter was justified, right up until it wasn’t... While that optimism may have been justified at that time, the global coronavirus pandemic erased it and sent markets into a tailspin resulting in roughly 34% declines for both MSCI ACWI ex-US and the S&P 500 indexes from their recent peaks.

Internation Intrinsic Value Opportunity
Strategy Review

International Intrinsic Value
Strategy Review

Global Intrinsic Value Equity Income
Strategy Review

The Coronavirus Bear Market… Is it Done Yet?

Market Commentary

Download PDF

Panic has set into markets as we entered Bear Market territory with concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and an oil price war weighing on investors... While uncertainty lingers, investors are likely to remain on edge. If there is good news to be had, it would be that the impact of the virus should be temporary (experts suggest a couple of months). Also, lower oil prices should help consumer incomes as they filter through the system. Now the question becomes getting through the next couple of months and minimizing the human and financial impact of dealing with these issues.

Coronavirus Correction, What is Discounted Now?

Market Commentary

Download PDF

While we could sit here and spout opinions for a long time, the real question most stockholder have is "what do I do now?" We see extreme sentiment measures as evidenced by high volatility readings (the VIX) and high put to call readings. Typically, those readings coincide with peak fear, and markets have tended to stabilize after them. Most economists have already anticipated economic weakness and marked their forecasts down accordingly, but we have not seen the indicators yet and that is all still to play out ahead of us.

Whitepapers

The Case for the S&P Doubling and a Global Bull Market

The Case for S&P 2500